Thursday, March 21, 2013

Nifty - Technical Update

  1. Nifty broke the NL of the HnS, now prices should close below the NL.
  2. The target for this HnS pattern comes around 5220 levels.
  3. Once again a break of 5600-5500 levels should confirm this move.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

USDINR, Nifty - Elliott Wave Update

  1. Today's was  a policy day, and we got a move quite fitting with one (so far).
  2. Now we need some decisive action by market participants to signal us what market possibility will take precedence.
  3. Today's sharp price move may have just given us the hint.
  4. There is a very bullish possibility, on the USDINR chart above. I have labelled the recent price contraction as a triangle in wave [c] of B or II. 
  5. In any case a good rally should be expected in either wave C or III.
  6. A BO above the falling TL should be an early signal of this possible up move.
  1. For Nifty then we have a bearish scenario on hand. We have been talking about a possibility of a flat correction, and if we are going to get a rally in USDINR, we are likely to get a fall in Nifty.
  2. It might be the wave C of {II}, and may target the terminus of wave A.
  3. Now that comes around 4530, but this is also a very large fractal, what pattern actually plays out will take a long time to clear. And between now and 4530 there are about a million possibilities.
  4. All I would say, is there is a bearish possibility in the equity markets, in coming days.
  5. The support area of 5600-5500 should provide further clues.

Monday, March 11, 2013

Bhartiartl - Elliott Wave Update

  1. We might be tracing out a complex correction in Bharti.
  2. It might be a double three or a possible triangle.
  3. I have tried to mark the waves according to whether they are 3 wave or 5 wave structures. The colors show different degrees.
  4. Now many combinations are possible. But I have divided the price action since the 2008 top into 3 broad areas.
  5. The first blue box (from left) shows a possible 3-3-5 correction. The pink box in between shows a clear 3 wave structure trending up, suggesting that the main trend is still down or at best sideways.
  6. The last blue box shows part of another possible 3 wave corrective structure, may be another flat, or a triangle, only time will tell.
  7. But what is interesting is the sharp rally from Aug 2012. It looks like a 5 wave move, so once this consolidation is done with, we can expect another 5 wave move up. Some resistance may be expected at the down trend line. 
  8. So far the small consolidation have shown no clear pattern, so we must wait before it becomes clear that this short term correction is done with, to benefit from the second possible 5 wave move in this script.

Monday, March 4, 2013

Nifty - Elliott Wave Analysis

  1. We might get some support in the 5600 - 5500 zone, this might be the last hope for medium term bulls.
  2. But if we break that level, the wave C down will get confirmed. 
  3. Right now the fall is looking very sharp, and a bounce if is in 3 waves, should be used to reinforce short positions.

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